The West Kootenay snowpack is sitting well above normal levels for this time of year, but rapid temperature swings and repeated rain events are keeping avalanche forecasters cautious.
Speaking at a State of the Snowpack event in Nelson on Wednesday, Jan. 14, Whitewater Ski Resort avalanche forecaster Jason Wishlow said the region is currently sitting at about 120 per cent of normal snowpack.
“Historically, we’re in one of our better seasons,” said Wishlow.
“We are seeing a significant amount of snow, and we’re also seeing a lot of water being held in the snowpack. That’s going to be really good for us in the summer when we’re 35 degrees.”
Despite the strong levels, he said warm weather and rain events earlier this season created multiple crust layers, specifically below the 2,000-metre mark, including much of the Whitewater Ski Resort area.
“So current state of the snowpack is changing rapidly, regularly, and it’s full of crusts,” said Wishlow.
Those crusts, according to Wishlow, are generally helping keep the snowpack stable as they prevent deeper avalanche failures, creating what he said forecasters call a “right side up” snowpack.
However, he warned that rain events can destabilize conditions quickly.
“It is incredible how fast rain will destabilize a snowpack,” he said.
“If you’re ever out and it starts raining [in the back country], take notice because you can really get caught and the world can start falling down in a hurry once it starts raining.”
Warm temperatures earlier this week triggered a widespread natural avalanche cycle at Whitewater, including wet slab and wet loose avalanches up to size 2.5.
As of Jan. 14, Avalanche Canada rated the local danger as moderate at alpine elevations. Wishlow said forecasters expect that hazard to drop temporarily as colder temperatures refreeze the surface.
“we’re expecting a refreeze, which means all that moist snow we had freezes solid and basically you have one big crust that’s covering everything,’ explained Wishlow. “Now that doesn’t mean it’s impossible to trigger an avalanche. It just means it’s a lot harder.”
Looking ahead, the region is forecast to enter another stretch of warmer, high-pressure weather, likely to bring spring-like temperatures during the day, followed by freezing overnight – an unusual pattern for January.
“The roller coaster ride continues,” said Wishlow. “Conditions can change fast. Expect more variability this season. We’re going to get storms. We’re going to be skiing pow. We’re going to be super stoked. But the way the season’s going, I expect the highs and lows likely to continue.”
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