New federal modelling shows 15K daily cases by October, hospital capacity at risk

Ottawa is predicting a difficult fall and grim winter as the fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic takes hold in Canada.

In her first public address since the election was called, Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam said the country is currently on track to exceed its hospital capacity by mid-January. 

Tam presented the latest modelling data on the virus which shows we could see about four times as many daily cases in Canada by October. 

She said short-term data has the country’s case count going up by over 43,000 cases over the next nine days. That’s about 5,000 cases a day.

The only way to lighten this Delta-driven blow, Tam said, is if more Canadians, especially 18 to 39-year-olds, roll up their sleeves in the coming weeks. The modelling, she said, shows the urgency for what she called an “immediate acceleration of vaccinations.”

As of this week, new cases among unvaccinated Canadians were 12 times higher than in those fully vaccinated and hospitalizations were 36 times higher.